Keir Starmer's Allies Begin 'Block Andy Burnham' Effort to Prevent Mayor's Commons Comeback
Key supporters of Labour leader Keir Starmer have reportedly set in motion a concerted initiative to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Greater Manchester Mayor, from securing a comeback to the House of Commons. This move follows the resignation of a Manchester MP, which has sparked an upcoming by-election.
Significant Hurdles in the Selection Procedure
A number of members on the Labour Party's powerful national executive committee (NEC) have apparently predicted it would be highly challenging for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the selection procedure. This is largely due to the sizable presence of Starmer loyalists on the committee who are desperate to head off any future challenge to Starmer's leadership.
The Labour party machine is said to have swung into action following the revelation of the MP's intended departure, with officials and MPs raising concerns about the substantial expense and political risk of a resulting mayoral race in Greater Manchester.
The Mayor's Aspirations and Party Concerns
Andy Burnham has been open about his national ambitions. Previously, he caused consternation within No 10 and among cabinet ministers when he stated that numerous MPs had encouraged him to stand for the party leadership.
It has long been believed that he is seeking a return to parliament to possibly contest the party leadership should a challenge to Sir Keir arise. Nevertheless, allies of the Mayor have cautioned against overstating the level of any planning, stating he is deeply committed to his job as mayor and would only return national politics if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," one ally said.
Current Climate and Public Approval
Amid opinion polls indicating Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's prospects at the next election, Andy Burnham is seen as the sole senior Labour figure with consistently positive public approval ratings.
If Mr. Burnham choose to stand, multiple hurdles stand in his way. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the chances are not in his favour—and then win the by-election against challenges from Reform UK and pro-Gaza independents, all prior to any possible bid for the leadership.
The 'Stop Andy' Campaign
Senior Labour figures have indicated that a "Block Burnham" campaign is already in progress, with the party's organisation being tightly controlled by key allies of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister personally commented that the byelection process was in its "initial phases" and urged his MPs to cease discussion of possible leadership challenges.
Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's departure was finalised, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Financial and Political Dangers
NEC members have reportedly cited not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could divert an estimated ÂŁ500,000 in party funding from other key electoral battles across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," a figure stated.
A number of sources also expressed concerns about Nigel Farage’s party attempting to win the mayoralty created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant political win for them.
Union Influence and Democratic Concerns
Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to run. There is also speculation the body could impose an women-only shortlist to prevent his candidacy.
Yet, one Burnham ally counselled against assuming the NEC would simply block his candidacy, despite Sir Keir's team is widely thought to control it.
The trade unions hold a sizable number of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are currently keeping their counsel, insiders suggested they would be opposed to anything perceived as interference from Downing Street.
The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
By-election Battle
The seat in question holds a sizable Labour lead. However, Reform UK is likely to mount a significant challenge, building on support in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on firmer ground in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could face a challenge from pro-Gaza independents.
Should Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to launch a bid for the leadership, a requirement that is far from certain given he is regarded with caution by some on the parliamentary party.
The resigning MP confirmed he was stepping down due to deteriorating health, which had made it impossible for him to continue in his role. He is also under a parliamentary standards investigation related to his membership in an inappropriate online group.
