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The polls are open for parliamentary elections in the Netherlands, with current polling data suggesting that the anti-immigration firebrand Geert Wilders and his PVV party may repeat their win the most seats, though analysts suggest PVV stands little chance of joining the next government.

Polling Trends and Election Dynamics

Wilders' party, which previously pulled off a surprise top result and established a multi-party right-leaning coalition that collapsed within a year, is currently marginally ahead in the polls and is forecast to secure between 24 and 28 seats in the 150-seat parliament.

However, the far-right party's support has declined since 2023, when it secured 37 parliamentary seats. All major parties have publicly ruled out forming a government with the PVV leader, and who precipitated the collapse of the outgoing coalition in June over disagreements concerning his controversial immigration proposals.

Major Parties and Forecasts

At the end of a campaign dominated by topics such as migration, medical expenses, and the country's severe housing shortage, the centre-left Green Left/Labour party alliance, led by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is placed a near second, expected to win between 22 to 26 parliamentary seats.

Also forecast to do well is the centrist D66, projected to increase its seat count nearly fivefold to 21-25 seats, while the right-leaning CDA is expected to significantly increase its seat tally to between 18 and 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – comprising the PVV, liberal-conservative VVD, BBB, and NSC – are all projected to lose seats, with several facing heavy losses.

Electoral System and Fragmentation

In the proportional Dutch system, gaining just 0.67% of the national vote earns a party a seat in parliament. Of the 27 parties contesting the election – including parties for the over-50s, youth parties, for animals, for a universal basic income, and sports parties – up to 16 may gain entry to parliament.

This high degree of division ensures that no single party is expected to win a majority, and the Netherlands has been governed by coalitions – often including four parties in the last few administrations – for over 100 years.

Government Formation

The PVV leader claimed that "democracy will be dead" in the Netherlands if the PVV ends up as the largest party yet is shut out of power. However, critics and analysts say that winning the most seats does not assure a role in the coalition and that any coalition with a majority is democratically valid.

Although the final outcome is hard to predict and coalition talks could take several months, analysts suggest that following the most extreme government in its recent history, the future government is likely to be a broad-based alliance headed by either the centre-left or moderate right.

Election Day Details

Voting locations, such as those in the miniature city Madurodam in The Hague and the Anne Frank house in the capital city, began operations at 7:30 AM (6:30 GMT) and will conclude at 9:00 PM. A typically reliable post-voting survey is expected soon after closing time.

Once voting concludes, an informateur will explore potential governing alliances that could command a majority in the legislature. Prospective coalition members will then negotiate an agreement for the next four years and must face a vote of confidence in parliament before taking office.