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The historic Ashes series may offer a reason to cheer, but this contest will also see the Aussie side host a greater number of birthdays than an arcade in the nineties. Recent addition Jake Weatherald celebrated his 31st a day before the team was named. Nathan Lyon turns 38 the day preceding the Test in Perth. Beau Webster turns 32 just before the Brisbane match, Usman Khawaja will be 39 on the second day in Adelaide, Josh Hazlewood becomes 35 on the final day in Sydney, and Mitchell Starc will be 36 by the time January is out.

Older Squad Fascination Grows

For a couple of years there has been mounting curiosity with the age of this team and particularly the bowling unit. It is unusual to have nearly all player near a Test side being above thirty, except for novelty-sized mascot Cameron Green and occasional visitor Sam Konstas. But it wasn't necessarily true that greater age was a disadvantage: a Test team featuring a four-man attack with 1,568 wickets between them is scarcely a weakness, and it makes sense that all of those bowlers are well into their careers.

I've never felt this sure at the beginning of an away Ashes series | a former player

Perhaps what really highlighted the discussion is that the reserve players over that time, Scott Boland and Michael Neser, are also deep into their 30s. Emerging pacemen have floated into teams – Lance Morris, Jhye Richardson – before disappearing for years with injuries, meaning there has been no clear line of succession.

Transition Imposed by Injuries

So far, that hasn’t mattered, as the core four plus Boland have kept on backing up. Any team knows that having a group of similarly-aged players might mean a batch of similarly-timed retirements, but so far transition has remained hypothetical: a train that would indeed be arriving the mountain when she comes, but one that hadn’t yet steamed into view.

Now, abruptly, change is here, imposed on this Aussie team in the span of a short period. The spinal issue to Pat Cummins was greeted with equanimity: he would probably only miss the first Test, was the Cricket Australia view, and as the first-change bowler behind Starc and Hazlewood, he could easily be replaced by Boland.

But now that Hazlewood has been sidelined with a hamstring injury, the team balance experiences a much more significant change with two players absent rather than one. Cummins and Hazlewood as the two accurate right-arm bowlers give the stability and precision that enables Starc’s left-arm pace and swing to be used more as a attacking option. Losing both of them means a fundamental shift in the composition of the side. Boland handling the new ball is not unusual in his domestic career, but he has been so effective in Tests coming on after seven to eight overs of early pressure. Now he’ll probably have to be the man up front.

Newcomer Faces Expectations

Behind him will come Brendan Doggett, who at 31 years old himself won’t be an intimidated youngster, but he might become an nervous thirty-one-year-old. A packed stadium, half of it English, for the first Test of a deliriously anticipated Ashes series will not make for an easy debut, no matter how many media stories describe him as laid-back. He could be wheeled onto the ground on a sun lounger and still be nervous.

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It's uncertain, it might all go smoothly for this revamped bowling lineup. It might not. What is striking is how rapidly Australia have moved from the certainty of Starc, Lyon, Cummins, Hazlewood to the unknown of Starc, Lyon, and others. Who knows what further injuries the opening match may cause. Who knows whether Cummins will be fit for Brisbane, and able to continue after that match, given how tricky stress fractures can be. It's uncertain how long Hazlewood might be sidelined, with a history of getting injured early in series and a pattern of minor injuries becoming longer layoffs.

Outlook Uncertain

The latter part of the series may see the main four bowlers reunited and all going well. Or it might see transition setting in much earlier than the long-term aim of 2027 in the UK. Not through Neser, who is seemingly next in line and could be a great pink-ball Brisbane choice, but beyond that with choices unclear. Sean Abbott was in the original team, though he’s now also hurt and has never played a Test match. Richardson has just had his crash-test-dummy arm put back on, and this level is not the place for gradually starting one’s work. Beyond them lies the true uncertainty, and throughout it a chance for the visiting team. You can sense that change approaching, coming around the corner, and the English team ain’t seen the success since they can't recall when.