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For a brief period, Trump gave the impression to adopt a strong stance regarding the Ukrainian conflict. Following making statements of "severe ramifications" during the summer should Russia's president persisted hindering truce discussions, Trump eventually introduced substantial restrictions on Russia's two largest oil companies, Rosneft and Lukoil. This decision substantially impacted Putin's capacity to finance his military invasion in Ukraine.

Yet, with his latest detailed peace initiative for Ukraine, which was developed by American and Russian diplomats excluding Ukrainian or European participation, the former president has apparently gone back to his pro-Putin approach.

Rewarding Invasion

Trump's initiative would essentially reward the Russian leader for invading Ukraine while putting the country's democratic system in jeopardy. Despite ringing proclamations that "The nation's independence will be confirmed", large portions of the proposal effectively undermine that essential sovereignty. This constitutes a Kremlin dream would likely be a Ukrainian nightmare.

Showing his corporate past, the former president continues to treat the Ukrainian conflict as a mere land disagreement, like ceding Russia a part of Ukraine's soil will satisfy the leader. However, Putin's military campaign is not only about dominating a damaged swath of industrial-devastated land in Ukraine's east. Rather, it is about Ukraine's democratic governance – and the Russian leader's obvious intention to eliminate it so it no longer serves as an appealing model for the Russian people of the accountable governance that Putin's deepening dictatorship prevents them.

Land Giveaways

Although freezing in status the currently divided oblasts of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, Trump's initiative would require Ukraine to give up the whole this eastern territory. Aside from rewarding Russia with land that its forces have been unsuccessful to occupy in over a ten years of warfare, this giveaway would leave Ukraine's defenses severely compromised.

Donetsk is the location of Ukraine's much-vaunted "fortress belt", the entrenched defensive positions that constitute a key barrier to invading forces. The proposal would have the Ukrainian military leave these defenses, leaving Russian forces a clear route to the capital should he subsequently choose to resume the hostilities.

Defense Reductions

Additionally, in a step that would enable future fighting easier for the Russian military, the plan would force Ukraine to cut the size of its military from their existing 800,000 to 850,000 troops to a limit of 600,000. Significantly, Trump's plan imposes no such limits on Russian forces.

In what appears as a accommodation to Russia's efforts to depict Ukraine's chosen by the people administration as extremists, the plan asserts: "All Nazi ideology and actions must be rejected and forbidden." Seemingly to underscore this element, it requires that "The nation will hold democratic votes in this period" of a peace deal. However, the proposal places no obligation that Putin jeopardize his dictatorship by allowing democratic processes in Russia.

Defense Commitments

Certainly, the plan makes the Russian Federation pledge not to "invade bordering nations" and to "establish in regulation its stance of non-aggression towards Europe and Ukraine". However given that Putin has broken equivalent agreements in the previous instances – for example the Budapest accord, in which Russia pledged to recognize Ukraine's sovereignty in return for relinquishing its historical nuclear weapons, and the previous peace deals, in which Russia agreed to a halt in fighting and a restoration of occupied areas in eastern Ukraine to Kyiv – how should we believe Putin now?

For this reason the Ukrainian government has been so determined on international defense commitments. Although the initiative promises a "immediate unified military response" should the Russian Federation resume its invasion, and states that "The nation will receive strong defense commitments", the details vary from fuzzy to alarming. The plan would not only deny the nation accession to NATO but also preclude alliance nations from positioning military personnel on the nation's land, effectively precluding the peacekeeping contingent, likely led by Britain and France, on which Ukraine had been depending to deter Putin from replenishing his reduced troops, rearming, and reinvading.

Global Concern

Another side agreement according to sources would offer Ukraine with a alliance-like security guarantee, in which any later "significant, deliberate, and continuous aggression" by Russia on the country "shall be regarded as an attack threatening the stability and safety of the Western nations." That suggests a defense action. But unlike a strong Ukrainian military – the nation's best deterrent against renewed hostilities – the success of the supplementary deal would depend on the dedication of Western powers, like the US administration, to act with force to Russia's aggression, an action they have {not