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Just two days before the NYC race for mayor, Michael Lange made a bold electoral prediction – not just the winner citywide, but precinct by precinct. The analyst, an expert in elections who grew up in the city, has spent more than ten years in progressive politics and has become something of a well-known figure this year for his thorough analyses into city data and polling.

He released his highly detailed forecast map – which correctly forecast that the progressive candidate was victorious although missing Andrew Cuomo’s strong performance – on his Substack, his platform. Lange has a flair for clever terms. He pointed out, for instance, the divide between the progressive stronghold, running from one neighborhood to another area to Astoria, where he predicted (correctly) that Mamdani would win by large leads, and the conservative-leaning zone on Manhattan’s Upper East and Upper West Sides. There, “the Free Press and Wall Street Journal outrank the mainstream paper” in readership and most voters favored Cuomo, who ran as a moderate alternative.

Voting Day Patterns and Unexpected Results

How was your night?

I had to do that because they were dropping approximately 200K ballots into the system every few minutes! I was actually a little nervous at the beginning: Mamdani was ahead the early vote by a dozen percentage points, but came two big batches of votes added after that and the advantage went from 12 to 8%. It was concerning.

Understand, it was possible in which yesterday went kind of poorly for him, where the opponent was going to end up essentially doubling his votes from the earlier contest. However Mamdani added 500,000 votes to his primary coalition, and this was critical why he won. He went out and greatly broadened his support from the first round.

Expanding Support

Where did Mamdani get additional support from?

He assembled the alliance that the left long aimed for: diverse racially, youthful, it’s renters and it’s people squeezed by affordability. He improved considerably with Black and Hispanic voters, everyday New Yorkers, compared to the primary. Plus he boosted his base of liberal progressives, youthful radicals, and immigrant groups. Victory required without expanding his appeal.

He built the alliance that the left always wanted to build: multiracial, young, renters and people struggling with costs

Additionally, there were some Trump/Mamdani voters – is that a big trend?

It’s definitely a genuine phenomenon, confined to Hispanic laborers, south Asians and Muslims. Electors in immigrant strongholds that went for the former president last year went for Zohran this year. But it’s not that he was winning over white working-class voters and Trump loyalists.

Voter Participation and Impact

One of the big stories of the election was the record turnout. Who benefited?

Both sides. Turnout was significantly higher than anticipated. I figured it could go over 2 million, but it reached 2.3M – which is a huge number of participants. There was a substantial opposition group, energized, but his supporters was also motivated, and that sufficed to secure victory.

You predicted he’d get over half the ballots. Is he on course for that?

Right now it appears he’s favored to get over 50%. He’s at just over 50% but there’s still around 200,000 votes left to report as of Wednesday morning. So it’s not certain, but I believe it’s likely, and I hope he does so afterwards no one can say the Republican was a spoiler.

GOP Decline

Curtis Sliwa, the Republican candidate, is the other big story. His vote completely collapsed.

He lost a single precinct in any area. Including Tottenville in Staten Island, similar to an 88% Trump neighborhood. That truly was unexpected. Cuomo kept Caucasian districts, very wealthy areas and devout communities, and then added all of these conservatives on the island with a strong turnout. I think there was a lot of strategic balloting by the Republicans. This happened before Trump tweeted his support for the candidate, but that definitely helped. It might have changed the outcome if Mamdani’s coalition hadn’t grown.

The “Commie Corridor”

Regarding your often-discussed “commie corridor” – was support for Mamdani dominant in those areas of the boroughs?

I think existed a little dilution of the commie corridor in certain places like Astoria or Greenpoint that have older Caucasian residents. There, instance, the property owners and homeowners supported Cuomo. So there existed some opposition. But no, largely the commie corridor is another huge reason why Mamdani prevailed – he was polling between 77% and 83% in specific neighborhoods.

Community Support

In the lead-up to the vote there was coverage on whether the candidate was gaining ground with the community. Any indication that he succeeded?

Exist areas with a lot of non-religious and left-inclined voters – such as specific locales – where he performed strongly. However in the wealthy Jewish communities like the Upper East Side, his position on Israel was influential there. Similarly in the more middle-class Jewish areas like Queens neighborhoods, or Spuyten Duyvil and Riverdale – they favored Cuomo. And also, there are Jewish immigrants from the former Soviet Union in southern Brooklyn, they were pretty staunchly Cuomo. So I don’t know if existed major surprises on this one, but Mamdani retained left-leaning areas and even parts of the another locale with large leads.

Long-Term Significance

Has Mamdani rewritten what New York means politically? Will the commie corridor serve as a springboard for progressive contenders?

Yes, it’s not accidental that key political leaders from progressives hail from a few areas in the boroughs. I’m sure that there will be additional examples – candidates will come from these neighborhoods to be promoted to higher office.

However I think that every city in the US could develop similar progressive hubs. Urban places are the epicenters of progressive influence in America – since they’re young, tenancy is common and they represent locales where individuals struggle by the inequalities we face.