Where Has the Excitement Gone? The Decline of Open-Play Goal Scoring
A major talking point of the EPL season so far is the decline of scoring in open-play scenarios and the way sides are finding goals increasingly from set-pieces instead.
Looking at scoring methods to matchday 11 the prior season, there have been a drop of 39 goals in open play and an increase of 26 from set-plays and spot-kicks, giving us 13 less altogether.
If we look at the broader view, efforts on goal teams are taking reveal a staggering drop of 370 in open-play than this time previously.
And despite the big increase in set-piece goals, we've actually seen just two more attempts created from them excluding spot-kicks, indicating the proficiency clubs have been at devising strategies to convert from dead-ball chances.
Goal Statistics Tell an Interesting Narrative
The 301 goals notched in the first 110 fixtures up to now averages out at 2.74 goals per game, if maintained for all 38 games might be the smallest for five years, back in 2020-21 (2.69).
But just under 200 goals coming in open play averages out 1.78 per game and is on course to be the least for 16 seasons, back in 2009-10 (1.76 average).
2009-10 is also the only Premier League campaign to witness goals scored more frequently from dead-balls without spot-kicks than the current rate of 0.77 each match (0.79 average).
What Clubs Bear the Most Responsibility?
When it comes to goals scored from open play, Wolverhampton Wanderers have recorded the most significant drop, scoring only four in 11 matches, 10 fewer than at this stage the previous campaign.
Outside of Wolves, England's top division's drop in open-play scoring is predominantly a trend among London clubs, with five of the London's seven clubs recording five or more fewer goals from open play than last season.
To be fair, that's largely down to them scoring lots of scores at the early stages of the previous campaign as opposed to them really struggling to find the net in open-play the current term.
At the same time City have experienced the most significant jump, with nearly all of the 23 they've scored so far coming in open play.
Set-Play Proficiency
We've compared newly promoted sides with the relegated sides they took the place of. Sunderland Sunderland have scored an additional three scores in open-play than the Saints achieved in matchday 11 en route to demotion the previous campaign.
Regarding scoring from dead-ball situations (excluding penalties), the Gunners and the Blues have experienced the most significant jump, with the two clubs compensating for the five fewer scores that they've scored in open-play with identical figures from set-pieces.
United have netted two times more scores from set-plays as they managed in the first 11 matches the previous campaign prior to their coach assumed control, while the Black Cats once more prove more successful at converting than the similar-colored team that went down.
City appear not to have received the memo about netting additional goals from set-plays, since they've recorded three fewer than last season, similar to Nottingham Forest, even if this may result from the tactical shift they're working to install.
Overall Patterns
Six sides – Arsenal, the Blues, Fulham, Newcastle, Tottenham and the Hammers – have been the current campaign's primary examples by scoring fewer scores from open-play and additional from set-pieces, while City stand as the sole team to buck the trend up to now by performing the contrary.
It remains to be seen to see if clubs persist to rely so heavily on set-plays as the campaign progresses or if they regain their all-round creativity and start scoring more goals in open-play also.
